Russia, Sole Winner of the Iran Crisis by Yin Gang

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Russia, Sole Winner of the Iran Crisis

by Yin Gang

19 April 2006

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Beijing - Russian President Vladimir Putin invited Hamas to visit Moscow last month, and suggested that Iran transfer its uranium enrichment program to Russian territory. Both proposals exasperated the United States and surprised the world.

In June 2005, the Organization of the Islamic Conference consented to Russian membership with observer status. OIC and Arab League observers were present at Chechnya's recent parliamentary elections, thereby expressing a degree of recognition of Russia's policy on Chechnya and undercutting western criticism.

But why is Putin extending an olive branch to the Islamic world?

Historically, the Muslim world's attitude toward Russia has always been lukewarm or even hostile. Ever since the Tsar's time, relations between Moscow and Muslim regions were characterised by rebellion and repression. This hostility peaked in Stalin's time, when Islamic influence was completely repressed. According to an official document from 1926, Islam was defined as anti-Soviet. Moscow also issued in that year a document entitled Prohibition of Any Form of Islamic Religious Education. Ten thousand mosques and 500 seminaries all over the country were shut down, all estates belonging to mosques were confiscated, and thousands of Islamic religious leaders were sent to concentration camps.

The absolute prohibition of Islam and repression against Muslims was never relaxed until World War II. Although the Soviet regime resumed a policy of religious freedom after the war, religious professionals were still under strict control and all mosques were managed by the government.

During the Cold War, Arab countries were allied with both camps. The Soviet Union's allies were those controlled by Egypt's and Syria's secular regimes. These Arab countries fought against Israel with Soviet military aid. The United States' allies were Arab monarchies that opposed not only Israel but also communism. The war of 1973 marked the decline of Soviet influence. Egypt became America's non-NATO ally and Syria sought U.S. help to realise an "honourable peace" with Israel.

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan irritated the World of Islam. Nowadays it is generally recognised that jihad against infidels first appeared in Afghanistan, with Russia the target. The United States acted as a firm supporter of this jihad, disregarding the long-term consequences.

In this war, Islamic radicalism spread rapidly. After Michael Gorbachev withdrew Soviet troops from Afghanistan, they not only destroyed the pro-Soviet regime there but also began to direct their aggression against the western infidels who had previously supported them. Ultimately, Afghanistan fell into the hands of the Taliban theocracy. Jihad fighters from all over the Middle East congregated there. Across the border Islamic radicalism expanded. Afghanistan became Bin Laden's jihadi headquarters.

Meanwhile, Russia itself was facing severe pressure from the Islamic world. In ten out of 89 federal entities the main population is Muslim. According to official statistics, the Muslim population constitutes about five percent of the total; unofficial statistics put this figure at 15 percent, or over 23 million Muslims. The disintegration of the Soviet Union and institutionalisation of freedom of religion inspired religious enthusiasm and ethnic pride among Russian Muslims. Rebellious and terrorist activities emanating from Chechen-Ingush and North Ossetia have severely affected political stability and economic development in Russia, especially since the emergence of the extreme Islamic Truth Party in 1999. Moscow has to carefully consider the long-term consequences of developments among the Islamic population living in Russia.

It is not easy for Russia to build harmonious relations with the Islamic world. During the Balkan War in the 1990s, for example, Moscow was frequently accused by the OIC of supporting the Serbian anti-Muslim regime. A turning point for Russia was the sale of a high-powered nuclear reactor to Iran in 1995. This repaired relations between Russia and Iran and was followed by resumption of weapons exports to Syria, reflecting a Russian ambition to return to the Middle East.

Competing with the United States for the friendship of the Islamic world may become Putin's national policy for Russia. Russia is a convenient ally for Islam, which is under problematic pressure from the West to initiate democratic reform. The cooperation agenda between Russia and the OIC also includes anti-terrorism, meaning that Islamic radicals in Russia will face more pressure.

Putin is smart. Whether or not Hamas is ready to change its position, Russia can claim to have done its best to fulfil its international obligation. Whether the Iran crisis leads to sanctions or a war, Moscow benefits from the outcome, which one way or another will raise the price of oil, thereby bringing more money to Russia, the number two oil-producing country in the world. A war with Iran might affect the Straits of Hormuz, a very important channel for oil transportation, but Russia does not need the straits for its oil exports, which totalled 250 million tons last year, almost twice that of Iran. So Russia would be the only beneficiary of the continuation or escalation of the Iran crisis.

In contrast, China, Japan and South Korea, as major consumers of Gulf oil, would be the ones who pay the bill. In 2005, China paid out ten billion dollars due to higher oil prices for its 130 million tons of imports, while Russia earned 20 billion dollars more.

So in looking at the benefits of the Iran crisis, China and Russia are not on the same boat, even though the two countries ostensibly have similar policies.

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* Yin Gang is a research professor at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. He also serves as deputy secretary general of the Chinese Association of Middle East Studies. He is the author of “Arab-Israeli Conflicts: Issues and Solutions” (2002) and “Saddam Hussein, A Man Destined to Stir the World” (1991).

Source: Bitterlemons-international.org, April 6, 2006

Visit the website at www.bitterlemons-international.org

Distributed by the Common Ground News Service – Partners in Humanity (CGNews-PiH).

Copyright permission has been obtained for publication.

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